The Way We Read

I am going to make a prediction:

The e-reader is about to change the publishing industry just like the MP3 player changed the music industry.

Just as people no longer buy albums on vinyl or even CD's anymore, people will soon no longer buy books, magazines or newspapers in printed form. Forget waiting to save money by buying the paperback -- all books will be $9.99 or less, because with an e-reader, you're simply purchasing the content -- the intellectual capital. Publishers will no longer have to worry about production costs, print quantities or shipping. E-readers will allow the consumer to purchase an electronic copy at a fraction of the cost to produce an actual book, magazine or newspaper. No wasted copies, no storage concerns, just pure profit.

E-books and e-reader software have been around for sometime, but I'm talking about something slightly different. Reading content on any device with a "video screen" (PC, i-Phone, cell phone or PDA) is hard on the eyes over time. These new devices I'm referring to have a different type of display, called "electronic paper." Unlike a conventional flat panel display, which uses a backlight to illuminate its pixels, electronic paper reflects light like ordinary paper and is capable of holding text and images indefinitely without drawing electricity, while allowing the image to be changed later. You can even read it in direct sunlight, just like a book. The devices are just a little bigger than a paperback, weigh less than a pound, go for days without recharging and can hold hundreds of books -- even thousands with larger SD memory cards.

Just like there are lots of MP3 players, but the segment is dominated by the iPod, there are multiple e-reader device manufacturers (Sony, iRex, Rocket), but I believe the Amazon Kindle will dominate the category. Here are my reasons:

1. Wireless downloading of content: Being able to buy books and read content from the web without being tethered to a computer is by far the greatest advantage of the Kindle over all other devices.
2. Cost of books: Almost every book on Amazon for the Kindle is $9.99 vs. $14 to $25 for other devices.
   
3. Number of books: Amazon has the widest availability of titles, by far.
4. Amazon.com: All the features of the Amazon.com website are available wirelessly on the Kindle
5. "Ask Kindle": The ability to submit a question to a dedicated research desk that will return a detailed answer to the user within 24 hours on any topic. Currently this is a free service.

The kindle is not without it's faults as well -- only available in white, can't read PDF's, slow to make magazine content available -- but the wireless "WhisperNet" that makes the device capable of updating it's content untethered is so important that the Kindle will dominate the category until the other manufacturers offer the same ability.

I want to use my e-reader to read the New York Times and The Wall Street Journal on the train in the morning on the way to work. With the Kindle, I simply keep it charged -- the content is there every morning automatically. All the others would require me to tether the device to a computer at home and leave that computer turned on all night to collect the content when it becomes available. A much more complicated and less desirable experience.

I'm traveling and get a suggestion on a must read book. With the Kindle, I can immediately go to the Amazon.com web site, lookup the book, decide to buy it, wait less than one minute for the book to download and then be reading the book! Fantastic!

In the spirit of full disclosure, I am waiting for the Kindle 2. No idea when it's coming -- the rumors are first quarter '09 -- but I am willing to wait. I believe it will have a slightly larger screen and slimmer design and will have corrected all the first generation quirks.